Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.099083 0.113173 0.128478 0.146327 0.166565 0.188789 0.215036
2026-01-18 0.080343 0.099281 0.121432 0.149217 0.183107 0.223067 0.273735
2026-01-25 0.062385 0.082940 0.108687 0.143231 0.188286 0.244979 0.321662
2026-02-01 0.048145 0.068645 0.096060 0.135265 0.189747 0.262627 0.367362
2026-02-08 0.038476 0.058650 0.087362 0.130987 0.195355 0.286560 0.425289
2026-02-15 0.030835 0.050120 0.079255 0.126160 0.199425 0.309051 0.484990
2026-02-22 0.026432 0.045649 0.076359 0.128561 0.214562 0.349942 0.578309
2026-03-01 0.021563 0.039511 0.069803 0.124081 0.218223 0.373840 0.649196
2026-03-08 0.017890 0.034693 0.064574 0.120874 0.223414 0.400934 0.729543
2026-03-15 0.014951 0.030619 0.059916 0.117831 0.228349 0.428274 0.814535
2026-03-22 0.013277 0.028619 0.058684 0.120843 0.244712 0.478107 0.947228
2026-03-29 0.011493 0.026045 0.055896 0.120367 0.254356 0.516962 1.065333
2026-04-05 0.010068 0.024000 0.053932 0.121478 0.267913 0.566451 1.214083
2026-04-12 0.008947 0.022402 0.052628 0.123793 0.284459 0.624633 1.390002
2026-04-19 0.007470 0.019660 0.048312 0.118723 0.284322 0.648516 1.498459
2026-04-26 0.006147 0.016997 0.043665 0.112026 0.279394 0.661436 1.585491
2026-05-03 0.005219 0.015130 0.040558 0.108421 0.281058 0.689320 1.710868
2026-05-10 0.004418 0.013420 0.037505 0.104371 0.280944 0.713134 1.830774
2026-05-17 0.003996 0.012677 0.036822 0.106347 0.296371 0.776449 2.056043
2026-05-24 0.003412 0.011317 0.034200 0.102600 0.296244 0.801509 2.190325
2026-05-31 0.002952 0.010224 0.032106 0.099918 0.298524 0.833073 2.346451
2026-06-07 0.002563 0.009260 0.030190 0.097378 0.300756 0.864893 2.508431
2026-06-14 0.002364 0.008881 0.029967 0.099875 0.317967 0.939774 2.799179